Mid-Penn Football - Playoff Odds Edition - Everything You Wanted to Know but Were Too Afraid to Ask
We have finally gotten to the week everyone is waiting for, Week 10. Week 10 is the Week when dreams either begin to take flight or are delayed for another year.
The Wizard will go Division by Division and lay out each teams playoff hopes. At this point many teams playoff hopes have either been cemented or crushed. But there are still more than a few teams that need Week 10 to determine whether their playoff ticket has been stamped.
A few disclaimers - The Wizard's District 3 Playoff Rankings are **NOT OFFICIAL**. I try to get information out as fast as possible to give teams an earlier glance of their playoff hopes, but the information is not official or final. If you want to see if you actually made the District 3 playoffs, please go to the District 3 website. Also The Wizard's playoff Oddz are based on The Wizard's data and analysis which is a best attempt to provide the most likely scenario for making or missing the playoffs, due to the complexity of the District 3 playoff rankings, not all scenarios can be covered here. So there may be a scenario or two that occurs that allows for a team to make or miss the playoffs that is not discussed here. Don't take this as the Bible, just an aid at understanding the playoff picture.
The Colonial Division
Waynesboro (5A #7) - is the most likely team in the Colonial Division to make the Playoffs. Waynesboro currently sits at 7th in the District 3 Power Rankings and 8 teams make the playoffs in 5A. A win against a surging Mifflin County (2-7) team and Waynesboro makes the playoffs. The gap is simply too large for 2 teams to jump Waynesboro with a win, in fact it is highly unlikely that anyone could jump Waynesboro with a win. A loss and things get a bit more complicated. With a loss Waynesboro may not need any help to make the playoffs, but that would be cutting it close. There would be approximately 5 teams that *could* and that is a "big" *could* jump Waynesboro assuming they won. Exeter would almost certainly jump Waynesboro and Cedar Cliff would be within striking distance, with about 3 others having a very, very outside chance of making the jump.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - Root for Susquehanna Township to beat Cedar Cliff.
Final Analysis - 88% - Win & Your In. Lose & hope for an Exeter or Cedar Cliff loss and you should be in pretty good shape (but not a lock). You should still get in if they both win and you lose, but this is not a sure thing, hence the 88% and not 100%.
Northern York (4A #9) - came from the abyss of 2-4 to claw their way back into the playoff picture. Northern York currently sits in 9th and doesn't have a good chance of leapfrogging anyone. So here a Win against West Pery (4-5) is a must. Also they need a loss from one of Shippensburg, Conrad Weiser, or Susquehannock, though a loss from Susquehannock would not guarantee that Northern York would jump them. In addition there is an outside chance that a loss by East Pennsboro or Northern Lebannon would secure a spot for Northern York in the playoffs, but their odds of losing are low and the odds of Northern York jumping them in that situation are also equally low. Also there is a very small chance that Gettysburg could win and jump you therefore needing you to secure 2 losses from the opponents noted above, but there is enough to worry about already and this is not as likely of a scenario.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - Root for Governor Mifflin to Beat Conrad Weiser.
Final Analysis - 71% - Win & a Shippensburg or Conrad Weiser loss & you're in. Win & a Susquehannock, East Pennboro or Northern Lebanon loss & your kinda sorta maybe hope you're in.
Shippensburg (4A #8) - Currently at the #8 spot in 4A, win against Big Spring (4A 4-5) & 99% chance you're in unless the very unlikely scenario that Northern York or Gettysburg jump you, which is not likely. A Conrad Weiser or Susquehannock loss would just add sugar to the cake of ensuring you a spot.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - Don't worry about anything but yourself.
Final Analysis - 64% - Win & you're in.
Mifflin (District 6 6A), Big Spring (4A), Greencastle (4A), West Perry (4A) - you're out. West Perry, I say you're out, but there is actually a 1 in a bigfoot sighting chance that you could get in, but the scenario is not likely enough for me to spell it out. It involves a win by you and losses by a lot of other teams that are not likely.
Middletown (3A #1) and Steel-High (1A #1) - you are in.
East Pennsboro (4A #5) - you are as in as in can be without actually being in. Currently at the #5 spot in 4A, not only do you need to lose against Boiling Spring (3A 0-9), but you also need 4 of the 5 teams below you to win, in order to miss the playoffs.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - Harrisburg vs Cumberland Valley - hey it'll be a good game and you don't have anything to worry about.
Final Analysis - 99% - make your playoff plans now.
Milton Hershey (4A), Palmyra (5A), Camp Hill (2A), Trinity (3A), Boiling Springs (3A) - you're out. Trinity, much like West Perry, you still have a chance, but its not much of a chance, if the 3 teams directly in front of you start losing, then you can get a tiny bit excited, but until then these are not good odds.
Harrisburg (5A #1), Cumberland Valley (6A #1), State College (District 6 6A #1) - you're in.
Central Dauphin - (6A #4) - taking care of business last week let Central Dauphin relax just a bit more this week. Central Dauphin has a tough draw this week against State College (7-2). A win and they are definitely in with a good seeding. A loss by any one of CD East, Wilson, Dallastown, Hempfield or Central York and they are in. There is also a chance that Central York wouldn't pass Central Dauphin even with a win. There is also a small chance that Central Dauphin could jump a Red Lion team that losses even with a loss.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - root for William Penn to beat Central York.
Final Analysis - 98% - barring a tragic run of wins by everyone in District 3 6A, you can write your name into the District 3 playoffs in pen.
CD East - (6A #5) - much like Central Dauphin, CD East has a tough final draw against Bishop McDevitt (7-2). A win and you're in, a loss and a loss by Central York and you're in. A loss and a loss by Wilson, Dallastown or Hempfield and you are potentially in, but it will be a close call based on your strength of schedule. Basically if this scenario plays out you are going to want to wait until the final game of District 3 is played to count your chickens because any win or loss by any team you or your opponents played could tip the scale of justice.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - root for William Penn to beat Central York. You and Central Dauphin can have a viewing party, because this game helps you both.
Final Analysis - 90% - hopefully you win or Central York loses, otherwise you might be in for a late night/weekend and may be asking for a recount.
Carlisle (6A), Chambersburg (6A) - you're out.
Bishop McDevitt (4A #2) - you're in.
Cedar Cliff - (5A #9) - you definitely need to win and also need a loss by Exeter or potentially, but unlikely Waynesboro, in order to jump up a spot. There is an outside chance that you will pass Exeter if they lose and you win based on strength of schedule, less likely is the same scenario except with Waynesboro, who has a more substantial ranking points lead.
Most Important Game Other Than Your Own - Root for Daniel Boone to beat Exeter.
Final Analysis - 5% - Win and say your prayers.
Lower Dauphin (5A), Susquehanna Township (4A), Mechanicsburg (5A), Red Land (5A), Hershey (5A) - you're all out of here.