Yesterday The Wizard took a look at the teams in the Colonial Division and their odds of making the District 3 playoffs. Today The Wizard will look at the Capital Division and its teams' odds of making the playoffs.
The Capital Division has teams in Class 1A (Steelton-Highspire), Class 2A (Camp Hill), Class 3A (Middletown, Trinity & Boiling Springs), Class 4A (East Pennsboro & Milton Hershey) and Class 5A (Palmyra). Class 1A & Class 2A both have only 2 Entrants into the PIAA District 3 Playoffs, Class 3A has 4 Entrants into the playoffs. Class 4A & 5a both have 8 Entrants into the playoffs.
The Capital Division is both the largest Division in the Mid-Penn with 8 teams, but also the most diverse with teams in 5 different classes.
Middletown (6-0) - the Blue Raiders are currently the cream of the crop in the Capital Division. While they are only a 3A team they have already defeated 5A Palmyra (5-1) and 4A East Pennsboro (4-2). The Blue Raiders are heavy favorites from here on out and barring a tougher match-up in the season finale against Steel-High, the Raiders are focusing more on an undefeated season rather than just making the playoffs. The Wizard gives the Blue Raiders a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Even an upset or two will allow Middletown to still make the playoffs.
Steel-High (5-1) - only 2 teams make the playoffs in 1A in District 3, but pencil Steelton-Highspire into one of those slots. Few 1A teams can hold their own in a division that includes 5A teams, but the Steamrollers are one of those rare teams. With wins this season already including 4A East Pennsboro and 3A Trinity, the Steamrollers have already proven they belong. The Steamrollers still need to play Palmyra this week and Middletown to end the season, but even with another loss or two the Streamrollers should easily roll into the playoffs due to their tough strength of schedule. Like Middletown, The Wizard gives the Steamrollers a 99% chance of making the playoffs, unless the wheels completely fall off, expect the Steamrollers to go deep into the playoffs once again.
Palmyra (5-1) - playing in a division full of strong smaller class schools is a thankless job. Even at 5-1, Palmyra sits at the bottom of the 1 loss teams in Class 5A. Palmyra can afford one more loss, but a third loss on the season due to playing against lower class teams will put the Cougars playoff hopes at serious risk. This weeks game against Steel-High will go a long way in determining the Cougars chances at the playoffs. A win this week should put Palmyra on solid ground, a loss and the Cougars will likely need to win out. Due to its tenuous situation The Wizard gives Palmyra a bit better than a coin flips chance at the playoffs at 52%.
East Pennsboro (4-2) - playing in 4A the Panthers may be able to afford to lose one more game, but not likely 2. The good news is that through 6 games the Panthers have only lost 2 game and both against admiral opponents. The bad news is that the only "sure" win they have left is Boiling Springs in season finale. If the Panthers can find a way to run through the gauntlet of Trinity, Camp HIll and Palmyra - all of who The Wizard currently has East Pennsboro as an underdog against, then the road to the playoffs will be stamped. Lose 1 game and those chances get a bit dicey (though they could slip into 1 of the final slots ala 2016), lose 2 games and the odds aren't good. As such The Wizard gives the Panthers a 37% chance at the playoffs.
Trinity (3-3), Milton Hershey (2-4), Camp Hill (3-3) - while each of these teams come from different classes, each of them have something in common. They do not control their own destiny. Even if they win out, none of these teams are assured a playoff spot due to the number in their loss colum. Trinity has the best odds of making the playoffs by running the table and also the best odds of running the table with essentially toss up games the rest of the way, except for Palmyra where they are currently an underdog. While not mathematically eliminated, each of these teams has a real possibility of being on the outside looking in. The Wizard gives Trinity a 3% chance, Milton Hershey a 2% chance and Camp Hill a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
Boiling Springs (0-6) - sorry but 6 losses isn't making the playoffs, not here, not today.