With the Mid-Penn football season passing the midway point, it is time to start looking ahead to the playoffs District 3 playoffs. Every Mid-Penn team other than Mifflin County and State College, who are in District 6, are part of District 3.
Today, the Wizard will focus specifically on the Colonial Division which has teams in Class 4A (Shippensburg, Northern York, Big Spring, Greencastle & West Perry), Class 5A (Waynesboro) and Class 6A (Mifflin County). Both Class 4A & Class 5A in District 3 have 8 teams qualify for the playoffs. District 6 Class 6A has only 2 teams qualify for the playoffs.
Waynesboro (4-2) - As mentioned, Waynesboro is the only team in the Colonial Division that is in Class 5A. Last year, Waynesboro was the final team to make the playoffs in Class 5A with a 7-3 record. However, the off-season exit of James Buchanan and the Indians inability to find a replacement 10th game could prove costly to the Indians or at least give them a smaller margin for error. It is unlikely, though not impossible, that a 6 win team will make the 5A playoffs with a Colonial Division strength of schedule, so in essence by not scheduling a 10th game the Indians handed themselves a loss.
The one thing that the Indians have going for them is that the toughest part of their schedule is behind them, therefore any loss here on out would be an upset. That being said, no matter the strength of schedule, racking up 3 straight wins to end the season is never an easy accomplishment. The Wizard gives the Indians a 42% chance to make the playoffs by going 7-2.
Shippensburg (4-2) - The Greyhounds, like the Indians were bitten by the James Buchanan Colonial Division exit. However, for the Greyhounds, things kind of ended up working out for the better. To replace James Buchanan Shippensburg added New Jersey Powerhouse River Dell, who they ended up losing to. However, to Shippensburg's advantage District 3 does not count non-PIAA opponents in its power ranking calculation. Therefore, for all intents and purposes, the way District 3 sees it, the Greyhounds are 4-1. Much like 5A, it is likely going to take a 7-2 performance (not counting the River Dell game) for Shippensburg to make the playoffs in Class 4A. However, unlike Waynesboro, Shippensburg has the luxury of being able to drop one more game and still make the playoffs.
The Wizard gives Shippensburg a 53% chance of at least going 3-1 and making the playoffs at 7-2. The biggest roadblocks for Shippensburg are Northern York and Big Springs, which are essentially pick'em games at this point. Win 1 of those 2 and the Greyhounds will likely continue playing into the colder days of the year.
Big Spring (4-3) - the Bulldogs through a somewhat pedestrian non-conference schedule have found their way into the playoff hunt. The strength of the non-conference schedule has caused the Bulldogs to fall below teams with less records and also risks them getting passed up at the end of season by teams that are 6-4 and certainly most teams that are 7-3 in Class 4A. So odds here are that only 3 straight wins will allow the Bulldogs to make the playoffs. This will be no easy task with Waynesboro and Shippensburg still to come for the Bulldogs. A win at home this week against the Indians though would knock Waynesboro out of the playoff hunt and make things very interesting for Big Spring. Overall there is a tough road ahead for the Bulldogs, with The Wizard giving them a 12% chance at the playoffs.
Northern York, Greencastle, West Perry (2-4) - each of these teams already has 4 losses, which in and of itself may be a deal breaker as 4 losses by itself will have a hard time making it to the playoffs in Class 4A based on a Colonial Division strength of schedule. The Wizard gives each of these teams approximately a 1% chance of making the playoffs by running the table and getting some help for other on the fence teams getting beat up in the final weeks of the season. Of these teams, The Wizard gives Northern York the highest chance of making the playoffs based on their Wizard Power Ranking. Its not completely hopeless for these teams, but the window of opportunity is closing quickly.
Mifflin County (0-6) - sorry Mifflin County, no analysis needed here, better luck next year............